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Article

Outbound Air Travel Demand Forecasting Model with Unobserved Regional Characteristics

미관찰 지역 특성을 고려한 내국인 국제선 항공수요 추정 모형

Jeong Whon YU1
,
Jung Yoon CHOI2*
유 정훈1
,
최 정윤2*
1Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University, Gyeonggi 16499, Korea
2TOD-based Sustainable City Transportation Research Center, Ajou University, Gyeonggi 16499, Korea
1아주대학교 교통시스템공학과
2아주대학교 TOD기반 도시교통연구센터
* 교신저자* Corresponding Author
April 2018. pp. 141-154
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Abstract

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

Keywords
fixed-effects model
panel data
outbound air travel demand
southeastern region
unobserved heterogeneity

지속적으로 증가하는 국제선 항공수요에 대웅하기 위해 지방 광역권에도 새로운 공항 건설 및 기존 공항 확장 계획이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 기존 항공수요예측은 우리나라 전체 항공수요 또는 주요 도시 간의 항공수요에 대해서 수행되어 왔으며, 지방의 고유 특성을 고려한 지역별 항공수요예측은 많이 이루어지지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 영남권 국제선 항공수요를 대상으로 하였고, 현실적으로 관측하기 어려운 지방 광역권의 고유 특성을 반영할 수 있는 패널 자료를 활용한 fixed-effects model을 최적 모형으로 제안하였다. 모형 검증결과를 살펴보면 패널 자료 분석은 시계열 특성을 가지는 몇 개의 거시 사회경제지표만을 사용한 모형에서 다루기 어려운 허구적 회귀와 미관찰 이질성을 효과적으로 처리하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 다양한 통계적 검증과 적합성 평가를 통해서 본 연구에서 제안한 fixed-effects model이 다른 계량경제 모형들에 비해서 영남권 국제선 수요예측에 있어서 우수함을 증명하였다.

키워드
fixed-effects model
패널 자료
국제선 항공수요
영남권
미관찰 이질성
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 36
  • No :2
  • Pages :141-154
  • Received Date : 2018-02-03
  • Revised Date : 2018-04-05
  • Accepted Date : 2018-04-30
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2018.36.2.141
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