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2019 Vol.37, Issue 4 Preview Page

Article

Study on Development of Bus Traffic Accident Prediction Models and Safety Rating according to Driver’s Working Conditions

운전자 근로여건에 따른 버스 교통사고 예측모형 및 안전등급 개발 연구

Wonil PARK1
,
Kyunghyun KIM2
,
Sangmin PARK3
,
Ilsoo YUN4*
박 원일1
,
김 경현2
,
박 상민3
,
윤 일수4*
1Senior Researcher, Korea Research Institute of Transportation Industries, Seoul 06703, Korea
2Manager, Korea Transportation Safety Authority, Gwangju Metropolitan City 61738, Korea
3Ph.D. Student, Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University, Gyeonggi 16499, Korea
4Professor, Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University, Gyeonggi 16499, Korea
1한국운수산업연구원 책임연구원
2한국교통안전공단 과장
3아주대학교 건설교통공학과 박사과정
4아주대학교 교통시스템공학과 교수
* Corresponding Author
31 August 2019. pp. 322-337
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Abstract

The safety of the driver is very important from the perspective of traffic safety because the human factor makes the biggest contribution to the traffic accident compared with the road environment factor and the vehicle-related factor. In particular, commercial vehicles such as route buses are used by many passengers and operate throughout the day, so the responsibility and risk for the safety of the driver are at the same time. In this study, the safety performance function was developed using a negative binomial regression and then the number of traffic accidents was predicted in order to investigate how much the driver’s working conditions including working hours affected the bus traffic accident as a human factor. The final safety performance function consists of the fleet size using exposure variable, the number of drivers per vehicle, and monthly salary. Using the safety performance function, the level of service of safety (LOSS) for each bus company was evaluated in four levels (LOSS A through D). As the safety levels deteriorated to LOSS D, the average number of accidents and the standard deviation also increased. Also, there was a difference in the LOSS between the semi-public operation system and private operation system. The LOSS A to B was high in the semi-public operation system, and the proportion of LOSS D was high in the private operation system. As a result of applying the service evaluation score of the city bus in Gyeonggi-do to the bus company of this study, it was shown that the service evaluation score is strongly correlated with the safety grade of the bus company. The number of dangerous driving behaviors per 100km based on digital tachograph (DTG) was applied to the safety level of the semi-public operation system (Seoul City) and the private operation system (Gyeonggi-do). In both cases, the number of dangerous driving behaviors increased as the levels were worse, and the number of dangerous driving behaviors per levels was higher in Gyeonggi-do.

Keywords
bus traffic accident
driver
negative binomial regression
safety level
working conditions

교통사고 발생과 관련하여 도로환경요인이나 차량요인에 비해서 인적요인이 가장 큰 비중을 차지하고 있다. 따라서 교통사고 예방을 위해서는 운전자에 대한 안전관리가 무엇보다 중요하다. 특히 노선버스와 같은 대중교통 수단은 많은 승객이 이용하고, 하루 종일 운행하기 때문에 운전자의 안전 운행 책임과 교통사고 발생 위험성을 내포하고 있다. 이 가운데 운전자의 근로여건은 지역별로 큰 편차를 보이고 있어, 버스 안전도 분명히 이에 영향을 받을 수 있을 것으로 판단했다. 이를 검증하기 위해서 음이항 회귀분석과 포아송 회귀분석을 이용한 안전성능함수를 개발하고 근로여건 변화에 따른 교통사고 발생건수를 예측하였다. 전국의 노선버스를 대상으로 버스공제조합의 지난 3년간 버스 교통사고 자료와 2017년의 버스회사별 경영 및 노무자료 등을 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 우도비 검정 통계량이 유의하게 나타나 과분산으로 판정되었고, 음이항 회귀분석 결과 총이탈도가 1에 가깝고, AIC 및 BIC값도 낮게 나타나 음이항 회귀모형이 적합하였다. 최종 안전성능함수는 보유대수를 노출변수로 선정하였고, 대당운전자수와 월급여가 유의한 변수로 선정되었다. 설명력은 부족했지만 근무형태와 월근로시간도 대당운전자수와 높은 상관관계를 가지고 있으므로 교통사고에 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다. 또한 교통사고 예측모형으로 구축된 안전성능함수를 이용하여 버스회사별 안전등급을 4단계(A-D등급)로 설정하였다. 안전등급이 D로 나빠질수록 평균 사고건수와 표준편차가 증가하였다. 또한 준공영제와 민영제 간 안전등급의 차이가 발생하였다. 준공영제에서는 A-B등급이, 민영제에서는 D등급 버스회사의 비중이 높았다. 본 연구에서의 버스회사 간 안전성의 차이가 해당 버스회사의 서비스평가 점수와 운행기록분석시스템 내 ‘100km당 위험행동건수’ 차이와 유사한 의미를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 근로기준법이 개정되어 2019년 7월 1일부터 업체 규모별로 노선버스 운전자의 근로시간 단축이 시행되고 있기 때문에, 근로여건 개선에 따른 교통사고 감소효과를 미리 예측해볼 수 있는 좋은 기회라고 판단된다.

키워드
버스 교통사고
운전자
음이항 회귀분석
안전등급
근로여건
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 37
  • No :4
  • Pages :322-337
  • Received Date : 2019-05-02
  • Revised Date : 2019-05-27
  • Accepted Date : 2019-08-30
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2019.37.4.322
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