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2020 Vol.38, Issue 2 Preview Page

Article

Analysis of Crash Risk Perception Factors in Urban Road Network Using GPS Data and Sensitivity Analysis for Stop Speed Threshold

GPS 자료를 활용한 도시부 도로교통망 내 교통사고 위험 인지 계수 분석 및 정지판단속도에 따른 민감도 분석

Daesang MOH1
,
Jaehyeon LEE1
,
Jongwoo JUNG2
,
Chungwon LEE3*
모 대상1
,
이 재현1
,
정 종우2
,
이 청원3*
1The Integrated Master and Ph.D. Course, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
2Master Course, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
3Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
1서울대학교 건설환경공학부 석박사통합과정
2서울대학교 건설환경공학부 석사과정
3서울대학교 건설환경공학부 교수
* Corresponding Author
30 April 2020. pp. 134-147
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Abstract

Two-fluid Model, which describes traffic flow in urban road network macroscopically, was mainly used for operational analysis of network. Recently, the studies on driver’s behavior and safety using Two-fluid Model were conducted. Especially, the estimation of the crash risk perception factors was analytically suggested based on the model. Accordingly, this study aimed to validate from the real data that the safety of urban road network could be macroscopically analyzed with the crash risk perception factors. The factors were estimated from digital tachograph data of taxis in Jongno, Seoul and Gangnam, Seoul, and the estimates showed that Gangnam with more average lanes had higher crash probability and Gangnam with less intersections had lower crash severity than Jongno. The results were consistent with the results from the previous studies with other methodologies. Meanwhile, stop speed threshold, which is introduced to accommodate the error in GPS data like digital tachograph, affects the estimation of Two-fluid Model parameters. The crash risk perception factors were also expected to vary with the stop speed threshold, and sensitivity analysis was therefore conducted. As a result, the factors increased with stop speed threshold increasing. In addition, the two factors fluctuated similarly, which implies the existence of the consistent relationship between them. This study estimated the crash risk perception factors of individual regions from taxi digital tachograph data, and verified the possibility of the macroscopic safety analysis in urban road network. The macroscopic studies on the crash risk in urban road network are anticipated in the future based on this study.

Keywords
risk perception
stop speed threshold
taxi digital tachograph data
two-fluid model
urban road network

도시부 도로망의 교통류를 거시적으로 설명하는 Two-fluid Model은 주로 도로망의 운영성 분석에 활용되었다. 근래에는 Two-fluid Model을 활용한 운전자의 주행 행태와 안전성 관련 연구가 진행되었으며, 특히 해당 모형을 통해 교통사고 위험 인지 계수를 추정할 수 있음이 해석적으로 제시되었다. 이에 본 연구는 교통사고 위험 인지 계수를 활용한 도시부 도로망의 거시적인 안전성 분석이 가능함을 실증 데이터를 통해 확인하고자 하였다. 서울시 종로 지역과 강남 지역의 택시 디지털운행기록계 데이터를 활용하여 교통사고 위험 인지 계수를 추정한 결과, 종로보다 평균 차로 수가 많은 강남에서 교통사고 발생확률이 높았고, 종로보다 교차로 밀도가 낮은 강남에서 교통사고 심각도가 낮았다. 이러한 결과가 타 방법론을 활용한 기존 연구와 일관됨이 확인되었다. 한편, 디지털운행기록계와 같은 GPS 데이터의 오차를 수용하기 위해 도입되는 정지판단속도는 Two-fluid Model 파라미터 추정치에 영향을 준다. 따라서 교통사고 위험 인지 계수들도 정지판단속도에 영향을 받을 것으로 예상되어 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, 정지판단속도가 높아질수록 교통사고 위험 인지 계수들이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 두 계수는 유사하게 변동하였으며, 이를 통해 두 계수 사이에 일정한 관계가 존재할 것으로 판단되었다. 본 연구는 택시 디지털운행기록계 데이터로부터 개별 지역의 교통사고 위험 인지 계수를 추정하고, 이를 통해 도시부 도로망의 거시적인 안전성 분석이 가능함을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 기초로 향후 도시부 도로망의 교통사고 위험도에 관한 거시적인 연구가 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
위험인지
정지판단속도
택시 디지털운행기록계 데이터
two-fluid model
도시부 도로교통망
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 38
  • No :2
  • Pages :134-147
  • Received Date : 2019-12-31
  • Revised Date : 2020-01-16
  • Accepted Date : 2020-02-28
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2020.38.2.134
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