Journal of Korean Society of Transportation ISSN:1229-1366(Print) 2234-4217(Online) 대한교통학회지

The demand forecasting for rail has been analyzed with zone-based OD data at macroscopic level analysis, and two type of transportation mode choice model are separately applied for national-wide analysis and metropolitan area analysis each by using the zonal OD data in South Korea. This zone-based analysis has fundamental limitations due to the spatial aggregation. It cannot analyze the various effects according to the traveler’s individual attributes on the mode choice behavior, which is inevitable limitation of the zone-based analysis in aspect of forecasting accuracy. However, the zone-based analysis is unavoidable for analyzing large-scale areas such as the national-wide area or metropolitan area. Therefore, this study aims to build a transportation mode choice model with improved accuracy of the model than the currently used model within limitations of the zone-based analysis. In particular, the study tried to reflect travel time and service frequencies of various transit modes between an OD pair into the traveler’s behavior model in a more realistic way. The suggested model can explain the phenomenon that the travel time differently affects the traveler’s mode choice behavior by the travel distance. This study also was performed to verify logically that the proposed model explains more realistically the choice behavior by testing the value of time and elasticity. A case analysis was included to show how the analysis results may vary depending on the mode choice model to be applied.