Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence Involving Child Pedestrians at School Zone

Tea Hun Beak; Seulki  Son; Byung Ho Park

doi:10.7470/jkst.2016.34.6.489

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2016 Vol.34, Issue 6 Next Page

Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence Involving Child Pedestrians at School Zone 공간적 특성을 고려한 어린이 교통사고 모형 개발

December 2016. pp. 489-498

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop road traffic accident model involving child pedestrian especially at school zones and its surrounding area. The analysis is based upon traffic accident data collected near sixty elementary schools in City of Cheongju during 2012 and 2014. This study results in two statistical models ; one is to predict the number of road traffic accidents involving children, and the other is to predict EPDO(Equivalent Prperty Damage Only). These models are represented as Poisson models. which are statistically significant with the likelihood ratios of 0.533 and 0.273. The common explanatory variables of these models are the ratio of road section with more than 4 lanes, the number of entrance and exit, the number of signalized crosswalk in school zone, the number of school zone signage including road surface marking, and the number of speed limit signs. The specific variables are the length of road stretch in school zone, the number of reflector mirrors, and the number of signalized crosswalk outside school zone. It is concluded that these types of road safety facilities can reduce the number of traffic accidents involving children at school zones and its surrounding area.

Keywords

accident model

Poisson model

school zone

spatial characteristics

traffic accident

이 연구는 어린이 보호구역과 인근지역의 교통사고를 다루고 있다. 이 연구의 목적은 공간적 특성을 고려한 어린이 교통사고모형을 개발하는데 있다. 이를 위해 이 연구는 2012-2014년 동안 청주시 초등학교 60개소에서 발생한 어린이 교통사고 자료를 수집하였다. 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 통계적으로 유의한 두 개의 어린이 교통사고(사고건수 및 EPDO) 모형이 개발된다. 가산자료 모형 중 포아송 모형이 선택되며, 모형의 우도비는 0.533 및 0.273로 분석된다. 둘째, 모형의 공통변수로는 4차로 이상의 도로 비율, 진출입구 수, 어린이 보호구역내 신호 횡단보도 수, 어린이 보호구역 표지판 수, 어린이 보호구역 노면표지 수 및 속도제한 표지 수인 것으로 분석된다. 특정변수는 대상지 내 도로 연장, 도로 반사경 및 어린이 보호구역 외 신호 횡단보도 수로 평가된다. 마지막으로 이 연구는 어린이가 많은 도로에서는 운전자의 주의 및 인지를 향상시킬 수 있는 시설이 필요하다는 것을 보여준다.

키워드

사고모형

포아송 모형

어린이 보호구역

공간적 특성

교통사고

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
Volume : 34
No :6
Pages :489-498
Received Date : 2015-12-22
Revised Date : 2016-02-18
Accepted Date : 2016-12-26
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2016.34.6.489

Journal of Korean Society of Transportation ISSN:1229-1366(Print) 2234-4217(Online) 대한교통학회지

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