Journal of Korean Society of Transportation ISSN:1229-1366(Print) 2234-4217(Online) 대한교통학회지

The purpose of this paper is to develop a traffic culture diffusion model using the system dynamics analysis technique used to structure and analyze complex social phenomena, and to perform scenario analysis on changes in the traffic culture index. The diffusion model was built based on the Bass Diffusion Model, which has a theoretical basis, and focused on deriving the innovation coefficient and the imitation coefficient by reflecting two types of diffusion by innovation and diffusion by imitation in the model. The vehicle technology level variable was considered as the diffusion factor by innovation, and the traffic safety investment variable was considered as the diffusion factor by imitation. In consideration of these two variables, a scenario analysis was performed on how the future traffic culture index will change. In the diffusion model, the innovation coefficient was calculated as 0.0005 and the imitation coefficient as 0.03625. In the scenario analysis, in the case of the diffusion level of transportation culture by innovation according to the change in vehicle technology level, it was analyzed that the transportation culture index increased or decreased in the range of ±0.058% when the vehicle technology level changed by ±10%. As for the level of spread of traffic culture by innovation according to changes in traffic safety investment, it was analyzed that the traffic culture index increased or decreased in the range of ±0.26% when the traffic safety investment changed by ±10%. It is judged that the results of this study can be used to predict and respond to changes in the transportation culture index by local governments, etc. through additional research on factors that spread transportation culture in the future.