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2025 Vol.43, Issue 2 Preview Page

Article

Exploring the Influencing Factors of Spatio-Temporal Travel Demand for Bike Sharing

공유 자전거의 시공간적 통행수요 영향 요인분석 연구

Jae-Yeon HWANG1
,
Shin Hyoung PARK2
,
Shin-Hyung CHO3*
황 재연1
,
박 신형2
,
조 신형3*
1Master Course, Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea
2Professor, Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea
3Research Professor, Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea
1서울시립대학교 교통공학과 석사과정
2서울시립대학교 교통공학과 교수
3서울시립대학교 교통공학과 연구교수
*Corresponding Author
30 April 2025. pp. 181-196
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Abstract

The rapid growth of modern society has amplified the role of transportation, while also increasing air pollution from various modes of transport. Bike sharing, as an eco-friendly transportation option, offers potential to reduce the environmental impact of other transport methods and provide numerous benefits in terms of public health. The utilization of bike sharing should be further increased to accommodate changes in travel behavior post-COVID-19. This study aims to identify the factors influencing bike sharing demand at stations. For this analysis, the Spatiotemporal Weighted Regression (STWR) model is applied, a technique known for its high explanatory power and ability to capture spatiotemporal effects through a comparative analysis of various statistical models. The study considers several factors, including bike sharing volume, public transit volume, amenities, weather, population, and slope. The results reveal that fine particulate matter, temperature, bus routes, and public transit volume exhibit notable spatiotemporal impacts. The volume of public transit had a significant effect in the suburban areas of Seoul, with its influence fluctuating across different years. Before the pandemic, the correlation between public transit volume and bike sharing demand was stronger in suburban areas, whereas it was weaker in the central areas. However, after the pandemic began, the relationship between bike sharing and public transit became unstable. Over time, the correlation in suburban areas strengthened again, although the intensity of this rebound varied. The results of this study highlight the importance of improving the connectivity between bike sharing and public transit, suggesting that enhancing this connectivity through the implementation of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) will be key to improving bike sharing utilization.

Keywords
bike sharing
covid-19
demand forecasting model
public transit
spatio-temporal weighted regression (STWR)

현대 사회의 급격한 성장으로 교통의 역할이 커지고 있으며, 교통수단에 의해 발생하는 온실가스 등의 외부효과가 증가하고 있다. 공유 자전거는 교통수단의 외부효과를 줄이는 지속 가능한 교통수단이면서 환경과 건강 측면에서도 다양한 이점을 제공하고 있다. COVID-19 이후 사람들의 통행 행태가 변화되었으며, 변화된 통행 행태를 반영하기 위해서는 공유 자전거의 활용성을 더욱 늘릴 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 공유 자전거 대여소를 중심으로 공유 자전거 수요에 영향을 주는 요인을 분석하고자 한다. 분석에 활용된 방법론은 통계 모형들을 비교 분석하여 가장 설명력이 높으면서 시공간적 영향을 반영할 수 있는 Spatio-temporal Weighted Regression(STWR) 모형을 사용하였다. 활용 데이터는 공유 자전거, 대중교통 통행량, 편의시설, 날씨, 인구 그리고 경사도를 활용하였으며, 분석 결과 초미세먼지, 기온, 경유 버스 수, 대중교통 통행량이 시공간적으로 많은 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인하였다. 특히, 대중교통 통행량은 서울시의 외곽 지역에서 높은 영향을 미쳤으며, 연도별로 영향을 미치는 정도가 다르게 나타났다. 대중교통 통행량은 COVID-19이 유행하기 직전까지 외곽 지역에서의 연관성은 높고, 중앙지역에서의 연관성은 낮았다. 그리고 COVID-19이 유행하기 시작하면서 공유 자전거와 대중교통의 연관성이 무분별하게 나타났으나, 시간이 지남에 따라 다시 외곽 지역의 연관성이 높아짐을 확인할 수 있다. 연구 결과는 공유 자전거의 활용성을 증진하기 위해 대중교통과의 연결성을 강화할 필요가 있으며, Mobility as a Service(MaaS)의 도입으로 연결성을 확장할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

키워드
공유 자전거
코로나바이러스감염증-19
수요예측모형
대중교통
STWR
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 43
  • No :2
  • Pages :181-196
  • Received Date : 2024-11-28
  • Revised Date : 2024-12-21
  • Accepted Date : 2025-02-03
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2025.43.2.181
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