Severity Analysis for Children-Related Crashes in School Zones Using Random Effects Ordered Probit Models

Sungjun Lee; Seongmin Park; Juneyoung Park; Junhan Cho

doi:10.7470/jkst.2022.40.4.599

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2022 Vol.40, Issue 4 Preview Page

Article

Severity Analysis for Children-Related Crashes in School Zones Using Random Effects Ordered Probit Models 스쿨존 내 어린이 사고 심각도 영향요인분석

31 August 2022. pp. 599-611

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Abstract

Recently, in order to strengthen children’s safety, “Safety policy countermeasures for children” were announced in five major areas (traffic safety, product safety, food safety, living space, and safety education) by Korean government. Among them, the traffic safety field includes the expansion of school zone to enhance the safety of children’s traffic and school routes, the improvement of walking environment, the addition of school bus declaration targets, and the implementation of location notification services for children. The goal is to reduce the number of fatalities in accidents. Despite implementing these policies, accidents are occurring within school zones, and safety against child accidents is not guaranteed. Therefore, this study aims to contribute to the improvement of safety in school zones by analyzing factors affecting the severity of child traffic accidents in school zones first. In addition, through this, it is intended to contribute to the improvement of safety in child protection zones by preparing fundamental improvements and countermeasures to cope with possible traffic accidents in advance. Prior to the accident severity analysis, an ordered probit model and a random-effects ordered probit model considering regional variables were applied to explain the severity of accidents (minor, severe, and fatal) in consideration of the characteristics of the accident data. The random-effects ordered probit model performed better than the general ordered probit model. As a result of analyzing the severity model, various variables were identified as important contributing factors such as night, weekend, human factors, vehicle type of driver, road type, and violation of laws. Through this study, it can be expected to improve the safety of children’s accidents in school zones.

Keywords

child

ordered probit model

random-effects ordered probit model

school zone

severity of accident

정부는 최근 어린이의 안전을 강화하기 위해 5대 분야(교통안전, 제품안전, 식품안전, 생활공간, 안전교육)에서 “어린이안전 대책”을 발표하였다. 이 중 교통안전 분야는 어린이 교통 및 통학로 안전강화를 위한 어린이 보호구역(School zone)의 확대, 보행환경 개선, 통학버스 신고 대상추가 그리고 위치 알림 서비스 시행 등으로 어린이안전사고 사망자 수 감축하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다. 이러한 상황에도 불구하고 어린이보호구역 내에서 사고가 발생하고 있어 어린이 사고에 대한 안전을 담보하지 못하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 어린이 보호구역 내 어린이 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하고 이를 통해 발생 가능한 교통사고를 사전에 대처할 수 있는 근원적인 개선과 대책을 마련해 어린이보호구역 내 안전성 향상에 기여하고자 한다. 사고 심각도 분석에 앞서 사고자료의 특성을 고려하여 사고의 심각도와 같은 순위(경상, 중상, 사망)를 설명하기 위해 순서형 프로빗 모형과 지역변수를 고려한 random-effects 순서형 프로빗 모형을 적용하였다. random-effects 순서형 프로빗 모형은 순서형 프로빗 모형보다 더 잘 수행되었다. 심각도 모형을 분석한 결과, 어린이보호구역 내 어린이 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 변수는 야간, 주말, 인적 요인, 운전자 차종, 도로 형태, 법규위반 등으로 분석되었다. 본 연구를 통해서 스쿨존 내 어린이 사고에 대한 안전성 향상을 기대할 수 있다.

키워드

어린이

순서형 프로빗 모형

random-effects 순서형 프로빗 모형

어린이보호 구역

사고 심각도

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
Volume : 40
No :4
Pages :599-611
Received Date : 2022-06-14
Revised Date : 2022-06-30
Accepted Date : 2022-07-13
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2022.40.4.599

Journal of Korean Society of Transportation ISSN:1229-1366(Print) 2234-4217(Online) 대한교통학회지

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