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2021 Vol.39, Issue 3 Preview Page

Article

Improving Bus Travel Time Estimation and OD-based Calculation for Travel Time Saving Benefit

버스 통행시간 정교화 추정과 기종점 기반의 통행시간 절감편익 산정

Jaeyeob SHIM1
,
Ikki KIM2*
,
Hansol YOO1
,
Keunsoo HAN3
심 재엽1
,
김 익기2*
,
유 한솔1
,
한 근수3
1Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University, Gyeonggi 15588, Korea
2Professor, Department of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University, Gyeonggi 15588, Korea
3Research Fellow, Department of Future Strategies Research, Daegu Gyeongbuk Development Institute, Daegu 42429, Korea
1한양대학교 교통물류공학과 박사과정
2한양대학교 교통물류공학과 교수
3대구경북연구원 미래전략연구실 연구위원
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2021. pp. 312-328
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Abstract

The feasibility study for transportation facility such as trams and urban railways has been continuously utilized for decision making. Demand forecasting and benefit/cost analysis, which are the core of the feasibility study, have been usually analyzed with macroscopic and aggregated methods and data for simplicity due to the relatively big network size. However, transportation service attributes such as bus travel time have not been accurately observed and used in the feasibility study in South Korea. The bus travel time has been used as the same value of the auto travel time or multiplying the auto travel time by a unique factor overall a selected region. Therefore, in this study, we use the observed data such as navigation and smartcard data to apply realistic bus travel time in calculating the travel time-saving benefit. In order to reflect the difference in bus travel time by transportation environments, the study also suggests a method to use an adjustment factor for each OD pair differently rather than using a unique factor. To determine the required minimum number of samples of the navigation and smartcard data, the coefficient of variation (CV) and the variation ratio (VR) were analyzed before calculating a representative adjustment factor for each OD pair. The study concluded that the true value of the adjustment factors in the population data could be estimated within the statistical error range when they were calculated with 7 or more day’s data. This study performed a case study to see differences between the existing method and the proposed method in calculating travel time benefits. The case study showed that the difference in the amount of the benefit between the two methods could influence the decision making in the feasibility study. This means that the reliability of the analysis result can be improved if the data-based estimating bus travel time is realistically used.

Keywords
adjustment factor
benefit of travel time saving
bus travel time
feasibility study
observed data

대중교통 이용을 육성하기 위해 트램 및 도시철도 등 대규모 교통시설 투자정책의 타당성 분석은 지속적으로 분석되어 왔다. 타당성조사의 핵심인 수요예측 및 경제성분석은 규모가 큰 네트워크로 인해 거시적인 분석방법과 집계된 자료가 사용되었다. 그러나 타당성 분석 과정에서 버스 통행시간은 현실적으로 반영되지 못하고 있다. 그 동안 버스 통행시간은 도로 네트워크 분석 결과에 따라 승용차 통행시간과 동일하게 적용하여 편익을 산출하거나, 전국을 3개 권역으로 나누어 승용차 통행시간 대비 버스 통행시간의 비율인 보정계수 값으로 단순히 추정하여 교통수단선택 모형에 적용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 현실적인 버스 통행시간 적용을 위해 내비게이션 및 교통카드 자료와 같은 실질적인 관측 자료를 활용한 편익 산출 방법을 제시한다. 또한 교통 환경에 따라 다른 버스통행시간의 차이를 반영하기 위하여 권역 간 및 권역 내의 고유한 값 대신 기종점 기반의 보정계수를 활용하는 방법을 제시한다. 보정계수 값을 추정하기 위한 최소 기준의 자료의 규모를 검증하기 위해 자료 집합화 규모에 따른 내비게이션 및 교통카드 자료의 변동계수와 변동비율을 분석하였다. 결과적으로 7일치 이상의 자료를 확보하여 보정계수 값을 추정할 경우 통계적 오차범위 내에서 모집단의 참값을 대표할 수 있을 것으로 판단하였다. 사례분석을 통해 기존 및 본 연구에서 제안한 분석 방법의 편익산출 결과를 비교해 본 결과, 편익 규모 차이가 타당성 분석의 의사결정에 영향을 줄 수 있을 정도의 규모로 산출되어 관측 자료에 기반한 버스 통행시간을 현실적으로 반영하여 신뢰성을 향상시키는 것이 중요함을 보여 주었다.

키워드
보정계수
통행시간 절감편익
버스 통행시간
타당성 분석
관측자료
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 39
  • No :3
  • Pages :312-328
  • Received Date : 2021-04-20
  • Revised Date : 2021-04-27
  • Accepted Date : 2021-04-28
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2021.39.3.312
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