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Article

Key Determinants of Ridership of Metropolitan Demand Responsive Transit Services: Empirical Evidence from the Gyeonggi Metropolitan Bus Service

광역형 수요응답형 대중교통의 승차 수요 영향요인 분석: 경기도 광역콜버스 사례를 중심으로

Youngwoon SEO1
,
Soyoung Iris YOU2
,
Keonwoo KOH1
,
Changjun HEO1
,
Wonjun OH1
,
Hanghun JO3
,
Sungtaek CHOI4*
서 영운1
,
유 소영2
,
고 건우1
,
허 창준1
,
오 원준1
,
조 항훈3
,
최 성택4*
1Undergraduate Student, Department of Urban Planning & Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
2Department Leader, R&D Strategy Department, Korea Railroad Research Institute, Gyeonggi 16105, Korea
3Post­doctoral Researcher, Department of Urban Planning & Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
4Associate Professor, Department of Urban Planning & Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea
1한양대학교 도시공학과 학사과정
2한국철도기술연구원 연구전략실 책임연구원
3한양대학교 도시공학과 박사후연구원
4한양대학교 도시공학과 부교수
*Corresponding Author
28 February 2026. pp. 114-128
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Abstract

This study empirically examines the determinants of boarding demand for the Metropolitan Demand Responsive Transit (M-DRT), a demand-responsive public transport service linking Seoul with the nearby peri-urban area. Using operational data from October 2023 to July 2025, we constructed explanatory variables incorporating the number of new and frequent users in the previous month, land-use and transit connectivity around stops, and weather and operational attributes. A random-effects negative binomial regression model was applied to accommodate the count nature of the dependent variable and unobserved heterogeneity across stops. The results show that land-use mix, bus transfer accessibility, and operating duration have significant positive effects on boarding demand. Notably, the influence of the number of frequent users in the previous month exceeds that of new users, indicating that retaining repeat users is essential for securing long-term demand stability. This suggests that preference for M-DRT strengthens through repeated rather than occasional use. Additionally, the positive effect of bus transfer accessibility implies that M-DRT serves as a complementary transfer-based mode rather than a competitor to existing public transport. By identifying the causal contribution of a frequent user base to demand formation using real operational records, this study highlights the importance of customer retention strategies and strengthened transfer connectivity in future planning and policy design for M-DRT services.

Keywords
boarding demand
frequent users
metropolitan commuting
metropolitan demand-responsive transit
random-effects negative binomial regression

본 연구는 서울과 서울 인접 도시를 연결하는 광역형 수요응답형 대중교통(Metropolitan Demand Responsive Transit, 이하 M-DRT)을 대상으로 정류장별, 노선별, 월별 이용 실적 자료를 토대로 버스 승차 수요의 영향 요인을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 2023년 10월부터 2025년 7월까지의 실제 운영데이터를 활용하였으며, 수요의 영향 요인으로 전월 신규 이용자 및 다빈도 이용자 규모를 고려한 이용자 특성, 정류장 주변의 토지이용 및 교통 연계성, 기상 및 운영 특성을 설명변수로 설정하였다. 종속변수의 특성과 정류장 고유 특성을 통제하기 위해 랜덤효과 음이항 회귀 모형을 적용한 결과, 토지이용 혼합도, 버스 환승 접근성, 운영 기간이 승차 수요 증가에 유의한 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 전월 다빈도 이용자 수의 영향력은 신규 이용자보다 크게 나타나 반복 이용자의 유지가 장기적 수요 안정성 확보에 핵심적임을 확인하였다. 이는 M-DRT가 일회성 이용보다는 반복적 이용을 통해 선호가 강화되는 서비스 구조를 갖는다는 점을 시사한다. 또한 버스 수단 접근성 이용 수요에 양의 영향력을 가져 M-DRT가 기존 대중교통과 경쟁하기보다는 환승 기반 보완 수단으로 기능할 수 있음을 보여준다. 본 연구는 실제 운영데이터 기반의 계량 분석을 통해 M-DRT 서비스에서 다빈도 이용자 기반의 수요 형성 인과관계를 규명했다는 점에서 의의를 지니며, 향후 M-DRT 운영 계획 및 정책 수립 과정에서 고객 유지 전략과 환승 연계성 강화가 수요 안정성 확보의 핵심임을 시사한다.

키워드
승차 수요
다빈도 이용자
광역 통근
광역형 수요응답형 대중교통
랜덤효과 음이항 회귀 모형
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 44
  • No :1
  • Pages :114-128
  • Received Date : 2025-12-02
  • Revised Date : 2025-12-11
  • Accepted Date : 2025-12-24
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2026.44.1.114
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