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2021 Vol.39, Issue 4 Preview Page

Article

Identifying Risk Factors of Marine Accidents in Coastal Area by Marine Accident Types

연안해역 내 해양사고 유형별 사고요인분석

Cheol-Won CHOE1
,
Yuna NOH2
,
Dae-Seop SHIN3
,
Hyunmyung KIM4
,
Ho-Chul PARK5*
최 철원1
,
노 유나2
,
신 대섭3
,
김 현명4
,
박 호철5*
1Master Course, Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, Gyeonggi 17060, Korea
2Chief Researcher, Maritime Transportation Big Data Office, Maritime Transportation Big Data Office, Korea Maritime Transportation Safety Authority, Sejong 30100, Korea
3Senior Manager, Maritime Transportation Big Data Office, Maritime Transportation Big Data Office, Korea Maritime Transportation Safety Authority, Sejong 30100, Korea
4Professor, Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea
5Assistant Professor, Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, Gyeonggi 17058, Korea
1명지대학교 교통공학과 석사과정
2한국해양교통안전공단 해양교통빅데이터실 책임연구원
3한국해양교통안전공단 해양교통빅데이터실 차장
4명지대학교 교통공학과 교수
5명지대학교 교통공학과 조교수
*Corresponding Author
31 August 2021. pp. 540-554
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Abstract

Prevention policies for marine accidents are steadily being implemented, but the numbers of accidents and injuries have been increasing rapidly over the past five years at an annual average rate of 10%. Besides, although various types of marine accidents continue to occur, previous studies on identifying risk factors of marine accidents according to the types of accidents have been limited. In particular, 89% of marine accidents have occurred in coastal areas over the past five years, so it is urgent to take measures to prevent marine accidents in coastal areas. The purpose of this study is to screen risk factors of marine accidents by accident types targeting accidents occurring in coastal areas and provide implications for the prevention of marine accidents. In this study, binomial logistic regression models are developed to identify risk factors for each type of marine accident. As a result, it is found that the coefficient signs of risk factors are different according to types of marine accidents, and through this, it is confirmed that the development of models for each accident types is necessary. As the risk factors that increase deaths and serious injuries, the tonnage of vessels, the sea area where they occur, the month, the time of day, and the use of fishing vessels are derived, and customized preventive measures for each type of maritime accident are required.

Keywords
binary logistic regression
classification of marine accident types
coastal area
marine accident
risk factor

도로 및 철도 교통사고뿐 아니라 해양 교통사고 예방을 위한 정책도 꾸준히 추진되고 있으나, 최근 5년간 해양사고 발생 건수 및 인명피해는 연평균 10%의 증가율로 급격히 증가하고 있다. 또한, 다양한 유형의 해양사고가 지속적으로 발생하고 있지만, 사고 유형에 따른 사고 원인 분석 연구는 부족하였다. 특히, 최근 5년간 해양사고의 89%가 연안해역에서 발생한 것으로 집계되어 연안해역에 대한 해양사고 예방대책이 시급하다. 본 연구의 목적은 연안해역에서 발생하는 사고를 대상으로 사고 유형별 사고 위험요인을 탐색하고 해양사고 예방을 위한 시사점을 제시하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 해양사고 유형별 위험요인을 확인하기 위해 이항 로지스틱 회귀분석 모형을 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 해양사고 유형별로 위험요인의 계수 부호가 상이함을 발견하였으며, 이를 통해 해양사고 유형별 원인 분석의 필요성을 확인할 수 있었다. 사망 및 중상사고를 증가시키는 위험요인으로는 선박의 톤수, 발생해역, 월, 시간대, 어선 용도 등이 도출되었으며, 이를 고려한 해양사고 유형별 맞춤형 예방대책이 요구된다.

키워드
이항 로지스틱 회귀모형
해양사고 유형구분
연안해역
해양사고
위험요인
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 39
  • No :4
  • Pages :540-554
  • Received Date : 2021-04-14
  • Revised Date : 2021-05-15
  • Accepted Date : 2021-05-31
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2021.39.4.540
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