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2023 Vol.41, Issue 7 Preview Page

Article

Analysis of the Congruity of Changes in COVID-19 and Transit Use in Gyeonggi Province, Korea, Using Dynamic Time Warping and CHAID

동적 타임워프 및 CHAID 활용 코로나19 변화와 경기도 대중교통 이용 변화 추이의 일치성 분석

Chang-Hyeon JOH1*
,
Miyoung BHIN2
,
Seulki SOHN3
조 창현1*
,
빈 미영2
,
손 슬기3
1Professor, Department of Geography, College of Sciences, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447, Korea
2Research Fellow, Mobility Research Division, Gyeonggi Research Institute, Gyeonggi 16207, Korea
3Researcher, Mobility Research Division, Gyeonggi Research Institute, Gyeonggi 16207, Korea
1경희대학교 이과대학 지리학과 교수
2경기연구원 모빌리티연구실 선임연구위원
3경기연구원 모빌리티연구실 연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2023. pp. 861-877
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Abstract

As the number of new cases of COVID-19 increased, the fear of infection increased, which led to a change in travel behavior, including a significant decrease in frequency. This pattern of decreasing frequency when the number of cases spiked and increasing frequency when the pandemic stabilized showed a certain degree of congruity between frequency and the evolution of the number of pandemic cases. Based on this congruity, it seems that customized demand management policies are possible to prepare for changes in traffic frequency during a pandemic. However, if the degree of congruity between the two phenomena varies by pandemic phase and region, it is necessary to accurately measure the magnitude of the difference and identify the factors that cause such differences. This study aims to measure the degree of congruity between public transportation use and changes in the number of pandemic cases and to identify factors that influence this congruity. To this end, bus card data from Gyeonggi Province collected from January 2020 to April 2021 was analyzed using the Dynamic Time Warp (DTW) algorithm and correlation analysis. The analysis showed that the degree of congruity of the change trend is higher in densely populated areas but gradually decreases due to fatigue as the disease continues for a longer period of time. These findings have important implications for transportation demand policies during a pandemic.

Keywords
Covid-19
bus use frequency
congruity
DTW
regional difference

코로나19 신규 확진자 수 증가는 감염에 대한 두려움을 커지게 했고, 이로 인해 통행빈도가 대폭으로 감소하는 등의 통행행태의 변화가 있었다. 확진자 수가 급증할 때에는 통행빈도가 줄고, 팬더믹 상황이 안정되면 통행빈도가 늘어나는 등의 양상을 통해 통행빈도와 팬더믹 확진자 수 변화 추이 사이 어느 정도의 일치성을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 일치성에 근거하면 팬더믹 상황에서의 통행빈도 변화에 대비한 맞춤형 수요관리 정책이 가능해 보인다. 그런데 두 현상의 변화의 추이가 일치하는 정도가 팬더믹 양상별로 그리고 지역별로 상이하다면, 그 차이의 정도를 정확히 측정하고 그러한 차이를 만들어내는 요인이 무엇인지를 확인하는 것은 매우 필요하다. 본 연구는 대중교통 이용과 팬더믹 확진자 수 변화 추이의 일치 정도를 측정하고, 이에 영향을 미치는 요인을 규명하고자 한다. 이를 위해 2020년 1월부터 2021년 4월까지 수집된 경기도의 버스카드 데이터를 동적 타임워프(Dynamic Time Warp: DTW) 알고리즘 및 상관관계 분석을 통해 분석했다. 분석 결과, 변화 추이의 일치 정도는 인구밀집 지역일수록 높으나, 질병이 장기간 지속할수록 피로감으로 인해 점차 감소하는 것을 확인하였다. 이 같은 분석 결과는 팬더믹 상황에서의 교통수요 정책에 의미하는 바가 크다.

키워드
코로나19
버스이용빈도
변화 추이의 일치 정도
DTW
지역간 차이
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 41
  • No :7
  • Pages :861-877
  • Received Date : 2023-10-05
  • Revised Date : 2023-10-29
  • Accepted Date : 2023-12-19
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2023.41.7.861
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