An Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Environmental Cost Benefits in Road Transportation due to Application of Electric Trucks

Sooyoung Oh; Hyangsook Lee

doi:10.7470/jkst.2021.39.4.474

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2021 Vol.39, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Article

An Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Environmental Cost Benefits in Road Transportation due to Application of Electric Trucks 전기 화물차 도입에 따른 도로운송분야의 이산화탄소 배출량 및 환경적 비용편익 분석

31 August 2021. pp. 474-492

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Abstract

This study analyzed the effects of introducing electric trucks among measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector. For this study, data such as freight transport, electric vehicles, and environmental policies were collected, and key variables were defined for the introduction of electric trucks in the road transport sector, and simulation models were constructed with system dynamics methodology. First of all, a causal map was prepared for the introduction of electric trucks, and detailed modules including major variables were composed of economic module, truck registration module, and environmental module. After simulation, simulation models were verified and results were analyzed. Carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to increase by 20.6% in 2050, the end of the simulation period, compared to 2020. As a way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, this study constructed a simulation model to form an electric truck introduction policy and reflect policies, calculated the amount of carbon dioxide emissions due to changes in the number of electric trucks registered, and conducted an environmental cost benefit analysis. As a result, if electric trucks were introduced, carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced to about 71.4-79.6% compared to when electric trucks were not introduced, and emissions reductions over the total simulation period would be reduced by 81,244-121,345,000 tCO₂ per scenario. It was also analyzed that each scenario would result in a reduction in environmental costs of at least 2,176,416 won to a maximum of 2,255,214 won. Through this study, it can be determined that the introduction of electric trucks should be carried out as soon as possible in the transportation sector, and how much contribution can be made to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from trucks.

Keywords

CO₂ emission

cost benefit

diffusion model

electric truck

system dynamics

본 연구는 도로운송 분야의 온실가스 배출량 저감을 위한 방안 중 전기 화물차 도입에 대한 효과를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 화물 운송, 전기 자동차, 환경정책 등의 자료를 수집하고, 도로교통 분야의 전기 화물차 도입에 관한 주요 변수를 정의하였으며, 이 변수들을 예측하기 위한 시뮬레이션 모형은 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론으로 구축하였다. 우선 전기 화물차 도입에 대하여 인과지도를 작성한 후 주요 변수들을 포함한 세부모듈을 경제모듈, 화물차 등록모듈, 환경모듈로 구성하여 작성하였으며, 시뮬레이션 수행 후 핵심변수의 평가를 통하여 시뮬레이션 모형을 검증하하였다. 그 결과, 이산화탄소 배출량은 시뮬레이션 종료 기간인 2050년에 2020년 대비 20.6% 증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 이에 본 연구는 이산화탄소 배출량 저감을 위한 방안으로 전기 화물차 도입 정책을 구성하고, 정책을 반영하기 위한 시뮬레이션 모형을 구축하였다. 이어서 전기 화물차 등록대수의 변화에 따른 이산화탄소 배출의 감축량을 산정 하고, 환경 비용편익 분석을 실시하였다. 전기 화물차가 도입되었을 경우 도입되지 않았을 때보다 이산화탄소 배출량이 약 71.4-79.6% 감소할 것이라 분석되었으며, 총 시뮬레이션 기간 동안의 배출 감소량은 시나리오 별로 81,244-121,345 천tCO₂가 감소될 것이라 전망되었다. 또한 전기 화물차 1대당 시나리오 별로 최소 2,176,416원에서 최대 2,255,214원의 환경비용 절감을 가져올 것이라 예상되었다. 본 연구를 통하여 전기 화물차 도입이 도로운송 분야에서 조속히 이루어져야 하는 방안이라는 것을 판단할 수 있으며, 앞으로 화물차의 이산화탄소 배출량 저감에 전기 화물차 도입이 크게 기여할 것으로 기대해 볼 수 있다.

키워드

이산화탄소 배출량

비용편익

확산모형

전기 화물차

시스템 다이내믹스

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
Volume : 39
No :4
Pages :474-492
Received Date : 2021-05-17
Revised Date : 2021-07-19
Accepted Date : 2021-08-23
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2021.39.4.474

Journal of Korean Society of Transportation ISSN:1229-1366(Print) 2234-4217(Online) 대한교통학회지

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