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2023 Vol.41, Issue 6 Preview Page

Article

The Relationship Between Built Environment and the Ridership of Demand Responsive Transit Using Direct Demand Model: A Case Study of Yeongjong Island, Incheon

직접 수요모형을 활용한 건조 환경과 수요응답형 대중교통 수요의 관계 분석: 인천 영종도를 중심으로

Jaehyung LEE1
,
Jiwon KIM2
,
Jin-Hyuk CHUNG3
,
Jinhee KIM4*
이 재형1
,
김 지원2
,
정 진혁3
,
김 진희4*
1Researcher, Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea
2Undergraduate, Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea
3Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea
4Associate Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea
1연세대학교 도시공학과 석박사통합과정
2연세대학교 도시공학과 학사과정
3연세대학교 도시공학과 교수
4연세대학교 도시공학과 부교수
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2023. pp. 690-703
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Abstract

Since Demand responsive transit (DRT) is expected to provide distinct services from existing public transportation such as reducing waiting and access time for users based on the flexible route and schedule, DRT has been implemented to address the issues with conventional public transportation. Although the travel patterns when riding DRT could be distinct from conventional public transportation, there are few studies on the factors affecting the ridership of DRT. Therefore, this study aims to develop direct demand model of DRT to investigate the factors affecting DRT demands. To attain our goals, the historical data of I-MOD, which was DRT services operated in Yeongjong island, Incheon, was used. The multiplicative models to predict the morning peak, evening peak, and non-peak DRT demand were estimated using built environment variables such as land use, point-of-interest (POI), and transportation facilities. The estimation results revealed that I-MOD demand is higher in areas close to subway stations and areas with a high number of trunk buses, as well as in areas with a high proportion of commercial areas regardless of time-of-day. Furthermore, there was a large outflow of I-MOD traffic in the morning and an inflow of traffic in the afternoon in areas with a high number of residential areas and places with a lower proportion of feeder buses. The results can contribute to making transportation policies related to DRT, such as establishing operational strategies for DRT services or when introducing them to other regions.

Keywords
built environment
demand forecasting
demand responsive transit
direct demand model
regression model

수요응답형 대중교통은 유동적인 운행계획을 바탕으로 이용자의 접근시간이나 대기시간을 줄이는 등 기존 대중교통과 차별적인 서비스를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대되어, 기존 대중교통의 문제를 해소하기 위해 수요응답형 대중교통을 도입하고 있는 추세이다. 수요응답형 대중교통은 기존 대중교통과 차별적인 서비스로 통행패턴 또한 기존 대중교통과는 다를 것으로 예상되나, 수요응답형 대중교통의 수요에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 수요응답형 대중교통의 직접 수요모형을 설계하여 수요응답형 대중교통의 수요에 영향을 미치는 요인을 규명하고자 한다. 이를 위해 인천 영종도에서 운행되었던 수요응답형 대중교통 서비스인 I-MOD의 이력 자료를 사용하였다. 토지이용, 관심지점, 교통시설 등 건조 환경과 관련된 독립변수를 사용하여 I-MOD 서비스의 오전 첨두시, 오후 첨두시, 비첨두시 수요를 예측하는 승법 모형을 추정하였다. 모형 추정 결과 기·종점과 시간대와 상관 없이 상업지역의 비율이 높을수록, 지하철역과 가깝거나 간선버스가 많이 다니는 지역에서 I-MOD의 수요가 많은 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 주거지역 비율이 높거나 지선버스가 적게 다니는 지역에서는 오전에는 I-MOD의 통행 유출이, 오후에는 통행 유입이 많은 것을 밝혀냈다. 본 연구는 수요응답형 대중교통의 운영 전략 수립이나 다른 지역에 도입할 때 기초자료로 활용하는 등 수요응답형 대중교통의 교통 정책 수립에 이바지할 수 있을 것이다.

키워드
건조 환경
수요예측
수요응답형 대중교통
직접 수요예측 모형
회귀분석
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 41
  • No :6
  • Pages :690-703
  • Received Date : 2023-11-02
  • Revised Date : 2023-11-07
  • Accepted Date : 2023-11-30
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2023.41.6.690
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