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2024 Vol.42, Issue 1

Article

Analysis of Safety Effectiveness of Village Zone Using Empirical Bayes Method

경험적 베이즈 기법을 활용한 마을주민 보호구간 적용의 사고감소 효과분석

Giyoung MAENG1
,
Dongyoun LEE2
,
Byung-Jung PARK3*
,
Ho-Chul PARK4
맹 기영1
,
이 동윤2
,
박 병정3*
,
박 호철4
1Master Course, Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, Gyeonggi 17150, Korea
2Research Engineer, Department of Road Transport, The Korea Transport Institute, Sejong 30147, Korea
3Professor, Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, Gyeonggi 17150, Korea
4Assistant Professor, Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, Gyeonggi 17150, Korea
1명지대학교 교통공학과 석사과정
2한국교통연구원 도로교통연구본부 주임연구원
3명지대학교 교통공학과 교수
4명지대학교 교통공학과 조교수
*Corresponding Author
29 February 2024. pp. 1-15
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Abstract

Recently, the development of improving road geometries and automobile technologies have enabled high-speed driving, and drivers passing through towns and villages may not recognize their entrance to the village zone, resulting in a high severity of traffic accidents when it occurs. As a result, protective measures are implemented in the form of village zone to reduce pedestrian accidents and safeguard locals. The previous evaluations of the effectiveness of improvement projects have been limited to simple before and after comparisons of traffic accident frequencies or rates, which do not take into account inherent regression to the mean effects, traffic volume, and temporal trends. To remedy these limitations, this study has utilized the empirical bayes method to get a more accurate analysis of the reduction in traffic accidents, while also testing the significance of changes in the ratio of specific accident types compared to the total number of traffic accidents through the wilcoxon signed rank test. Results revealed a 28.98% decrease in all types of accidents, a 50.52% decrease in serious and fatal accidents, and a 66.89% decrease in fatal accidents. Furthermore, the analysis found that the number of vehicle-pedestrian accidents did not show statistical significance at a 95% confidence interval, emphasizing the need for proactive installation of safety facilities to reduce pedestrian accidents when installing safety facilities in Village Zones in the future. It is also recommended to continue exploring potential sites for improvement projects to protect residents while prioritizing the maintenance of existing zones.

Keywords
empirical bayes method
pedestrian accident
regression to the mean
village zones
wilcoxon signed ranked test

최근 도로 기하구조의 직선화 개량사업과 자동차 기술의 발달로 고속주행이 가능해짐에 따라 지방부 도로의 읍·면·동 지역을 지나는 운전자들은 마을 진입을 인지하지 못해 교통사고 발생 시 심각도가 높아지는 경향이 있다. 이로 인해 마을을 따라 발생하는 사고를 예방하고자 마을주민 보호구간 개선사업을 진행하고 있으며 특히 보행자 사고를 줄이는 것이 목적이다. 이전까지의 개선사업 효과분석은 개선 전·후의 교통사고건수를 단순 비교 하였지만, 사고건수 단순비교의 경우 교통사고의 평균으로 회귀하는 경향, 교통량, 시간적 추세 등을 고려하지 못하기 때문에 효과가 과대 추정될 가능성이 높다는 문제점이 있다. 이러한 문제점을 보완하기 위해 본 연구에서는 경험적 베이즈 기법을 활용하여 교통사고 감소효과를 보다 정확하게 분석하였으며, 총 교통사고건수 대비 특정 유형의 사고건수 비율 변화에 대한 유의성을 윌콕슨 부호 순위 검정을 통해 검정하였다. 그 결과, 전체 사고유형은 28.98%, 치명적인 사고(중상사고와 사망사고의 합)는 50.52%, 사망사고는 66.89%의 감소효과가 있다는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 특정 유형의 사고건수가 차지하는 비율변화의 경우 95% 신뢰구간에서 차대사람 사고 비율변화가 통계적으로 유의미하지 않은 것으로 분석되어 향후 마을주민 보호구간을 설치할 때 차대사람 사고를 줄이기 위한 안전시설물들이 보다 적극적으로 설치될 필요성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 앞으로 지속적인 마을주민 보호구간의 개선사업의 대상지를 탐색하는 것뿐만 아니라 기존 설치 구간의 유지관리가 필요하다고 판단된다.

키워드
경험적 베이즈 기법
보행자 사고
평균으로 회귀
마을주민 보호구간
윌콕슨 부호 순위 검정
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 42
  • No :1
  • Pages :1-15
  • Received Date : 2023-04-28
  • Revised Date : 2023-05-23
  • Accepted Date : 2023-07-19
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2024.42.1.001
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