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2023 Vol.41, Issue 5 Preview Page

Article

A Study on Investment Strategy for Maximizing the Resilience of Road Network against Disasters

재해에 대응한 도로망의 리질리언스 극대화를 위한 투자 의사결정 방법론 개발에 관한 연구

WooKeol CHO1
,
Minseok KIM2*
조 우걸1
,
김 민석2*
1Senior Researcher, Transportation and Logistics Systems Research Department, Innovative Transportation and Logistics Research Center, Korea Railroad Research Institute, Gyeonggi-do 16105, Korea
2Chief Researcher, Digital Innovation Team, Future Mobility Division, Korea Transportation Safety Authority, Gyeongsangbuk-do 39660, Korea
1한국철도기술연구원 미래교통물류연구소 교통물류체계연구실 선임연구원
2한국교통안전공단 미래모빌리티본부 디지털혁신처 책임연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 October 2023. pp. 552-576
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Abstract

Due to the factors such as global warming, the frequency of natural disasters worldwide is increasing recently, leading to a growing concern for people’s safety. Natural disasters can impair or even disable the functions of urban components, and it takes long time to restore them to their original states. The transportation system is one of the most crucial urban components that facilitate the movement of people and goods, making it essential to establish plans against disasters. As a result, various researches for disaster response has been conducted, and among them, resilience is one of the most widely utilized concept. The concept of resilience is utilized in various fields, such as psychology, ecology, and understanding resilience of transportation system against disasters is imperative. This study primarily focuses on quantitatively analyzing resilience, that has not previously been explored. To conduct a quantitative analysis, we focused on two key components that constitute resilience: robustness, which refers to the system's ability to maintain its functions when a disaster occurs, and rapidity, which pertains to the system’s capability to swiftly return to its original state after a disaster occurs. In this study, the optimization methodology was developed to maximize the resilience of road networks and introduces a novel concept termed the Robustness Index (RI) to assess the effectiveness of pre-investment. Additionally, the study employs Genetic Algorithm (GA) to identify optimal solutions for addressing the Network Design Problem (NDP). The research findings indicated varying levels of damage to the road network based on different pre-investment scenarios for disasters. This allowed for the derivation of optimal pre-investment strategies that maximize resilience against disasters. Furthermore, this study confirmed that the scope of pre-investment varies depending on the type, location, and recurrence interval of potential disasters. his study proposes a fresh perspective on decision-making through a quantitative analysis of resilience effects, offering valuable insights for evaluating the viability of road projects.

Keywords
bayesian network
genetic algorithm
investment strategy
monte-carlo simulation
resilience

도시화, 산업화, 기후 변화 등으로 인해 자연재난의 발생 횟수 및 피해규모가 증가하고 있다. 재난이 발생하게 되면 도시의 기능이 저하되고, 복구하기 위해서는 오랜 시간이 필요하다. 특히 교통시스템은 도시의 핵심 기반시설로서 재난에 대응하기 위한 계획이 필요하다, 이로 인해 재난에 효과적으로 대응하기 위해 재난 분야에서는 Resilience 개념의 중요성이 부각되고 있고 Resilience를 분석하기 위해 다양한 개념들이 사용되지만 개념 간의 차이를 명확하게 구분하는 것이 어려운 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 Resilience에 대한 정량적 분석에 초점을 맞추어 재난 발생 전 사전투자에 대한 Robustness와 재난 발생 후 복구에 대한 Rapidity를 이용하여 도로망의 Resilience를 정량적으로 평가하였다. Resilience에 대한 정량적 효과 분석을 통해 의사결정시 새로운 판단지표를 제시하였고 이는 도로 사업에 대한 타당성 평가 등에 있어서 새로운 관점을 제시할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

키워드
베이지안 네트워크
유전자 알고리즘
투자전략
몬테-카를로 시뮬레이션
Resilience
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 41
  • No :5
  • Pages :552-576
  • Received Date : 2023-09-07
  • Revised Date : 2023-09-11
  • Accepted Date : 2023-09-23
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2023.41.5.552
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