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Article

Exploring Traffic Accident Occurrence and Crash-Cause Characteristics during Persistent Heatwave Weeks: Evidence from Intersection-Level Crashes in Busan

폭염 지속 주간의 교통사고 발생 및 사고원인 특성 탐색: 부산광역시 교차로 사고를 중심으로

Mingyu SUNG1
,
Jinuk HWANG2*
성 민규1
,
황 진욱2*
1Master’s Student, Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea
2Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea
1부산대학교 도시공학과 석사과정
2부산대학교 도시공학과 조교수
*Corresponding Author
31 August 2026. pp. 605-623
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Abstract

The increasing frequency of heatwaves under climate change has become an emerging concern for traffic safety. However, empirical evidence remains limited on how heatwave- related crash risks appear at urban crash hotspots. This study explores traffic accident occurrence and crash-cause characteristics during persistent heatwave weeks, using intersection-level crash hotspots in Busan, South Korea. Daily crash records and weather data from June to September between 2022 and 2024 were integrated. A hotspot-week panel dataset was constructed, and a Poisson regression model with crash hotspot fixed effects was estimated to examine the association between persistent heatwave weeks and crash occurrence rates. A space-time cluster analysis was also conducted using SaTScan’s Space-Time Permutation model. Crash records were then classified into persistent heatwave weeks and normal weeks, and traffic violation types were regrouped into four crash-cause categories. The results show that observed-day- adjusted crash occurrence rates were significantly higher during persistent heatwave weeks. In the final fixed-effects Poisson model, the incidence rate ratio for persistent heatwave weeks was 1.2224, indicating that crash occurrence rates were approximately 22.2% higher than during normal weeks. SaTScan identified one statistically significant space-time crash cluster, suggesting that crashes may be locally concentrated within a specific period and spatial extent. The crash- cause analysis showed that the overall difference in crash-cause composition was not statistically significant. However, in unadjusted exploratory group-specific comparisons, the share of complex attention and judgment-related violations was observed to be higher during persistent heatwave weeks. These findings suggest that traffic safety risks during persistent heatwave weeks should be interpreted as a statistical association with increased crash occurrence, while the space-time cluster results provide complementary evidence that summer crashes may also concentrate within specific places and periods. This study highlights the need for heatwave-responsive traffic safety strategies that combine hotspot-based spatial analysis with crash-cause information.

Keywords
heatwaves
intersections
spatiotemporal cluster analysis
traffic accidents
traffic safety

최근 기후변화로 인한 폭염 발생 빈도의 증가는 교통안전 측면에서 새로운 위험 요인으로 주목받고 있다. 그러나 폭염이 교통사고 발생에 미치는 영향이 도시 내 사고다발지점에서 어떠한 형태로 나타나는지에 대한 실증적 분석은 여전히 제한적이다. 특히 폭염의 영향은 단일 고온일의 효과로만 나타나기보다, 고온 조건이 여러 날 지속되면서 누적되는 열 스트레스와 피로를 통해 나타날 가능성이 있다. 이에 본 연구는 부산광역시 교차로 사고다발지점을 대상으로 폭염 지속 주간의 교통사고 발생률과 사고원인 특성을 탐색적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 2022년부터 2024년까지 6월부터 9월까지의 교통사고 자료와 기상 자료를 결합하여 단계적 분석을 수행하였다. 먼저 사고다발지점-주 단위 패널자료를 구축하고, 사고다발지점 고정효과를 포함한 포아송 회귀모형을 통해 폭염 지속 주간과 사고 발생률 간의 연관성을 분석하였다. 이어 SaTScan의 회고적 시공간 스캔 통계를 활용하여 사고 발생의 시공간적 집중 여부를 탐색하였다. 마지막으로 전체 사고자료를 폭염 지속 주간과 일반 주간으로 구분하고, 법규위반 유형을 네 개의 사고원인 그룹으로 재분류하여 사고원인 구성의 차이를 비교하였다. 분석 결과, 폭염 지속 주간에는 일반 주간에 비해 관측일수로 보정한 사고 발생률이 유의하게 높은 것으로 나타났다. 최종 포아송 고정효과 모형에서 폭염 지속 주간의 사고 발생률비는 1.2224로 추정되었으며, 이는 폭염 지속 주간의 사고 발생률이 일반 주간보다 약 22.2% 높다는 것을 의미한다. SaTScan 분석에서는 유의한 시공간 사고 클러스터가 1개 탐지되었으며, 이는 사고 발생이 특정 기간과 제한된 공간 범위에서 국지적으로 집중될 수 있음을 보여준다. 사고원인 분석에서는 전체 사고원인 구성의 차이가 통계적으로 유의하지 않았으며, 다중비교 보정을 적용하지 않은 탐색적 그룹별 비교에서는 복합적 주의 및 판단 관련 위반의 비중이 일반 주간보다 폭염 지속 주간에서 더 높게 관찰되었다. 이러한 결과는 폭염 지속 주간의 교통안전 위험을 사고 발생률 증가와의 통계적 관련성으로 해석할 필요가 있으며, 시공간 클러스터 분석 결과는 여름철 사고가 특정 공간과 기간에 집중될 수 있음을 보여주는 보완적 근거로 이해하는 것이 적절함을 시사한다. 본 연구는 폭염 대응 교통안전 정책이 도시 전역을 대상으로 한 일반적 안전 안내에 머무르기보다, 사고다발지점 기반의 공간 분석과 사고원인 특성 분석을 결합한 선별적 관리 전략으로 발전할 필요가 있음을 제시한다.

키워드
폭염
교차로
시공간 클러스터 분석
교통사고
교통안전
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 44
  • No :4
  • Pages :605-623
  • Received Date : 2026-03-04
  • Revised Date : 2026-03-17
  • Accepted Date : 2026-06-08
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2026.44.4.605
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