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2025 Vol.43, Issue 5 Preview Page

Article

Studying the Impact of Consumer Income Characteristics on Zero-Emission Car Adoption: Bottom-up Road Transport Model Approach

소비자 소득 특성이 친환경 차량 보급에 미치는 영향 연구: 상향식 도로 수송 모형을 통한 접근

Ayeong KIM1
,
Yeongjun YEO2
,
Young Hwan AHN3*
김 아영1
,
여 영준2
,
안 영환3*
1Master’s Degree, Department of Climate · Environment and Energy, Sookmyung Women’s University, Seoul 04310, Korea
2Researcher, Research Institute of Global Environment, Sookmyung Women’s University, Seoul 04310, Korea
3Professor, Department of Climate · Environment and Energy, Sookmyung Women’s University, Seoul 04310, Korea
1숙명여자대학교 기후환경에너지학과 석사
2숙명여자대학교 지구환경연구소 연구원
3숙명여자대학교 기후환경에너지학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 October 2025. pp. 636-648
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Abstract

The transport sector plays a dual role—it's essential for economic activity and human well-being, but it is also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. While electric vehicles are promoted as a key solution for reducing emissions in road transport, their higher upfront costs pose challenges, particularly for lower-income households who face higher implicit discount rates in their purchasing decisions. This study enhances existing bottom-up linear programming transport models by incorporating consumer income characteristics into the analysis of passenger car choices from 2019 to 2050. The study divided driving distances into eight categories based on household income levels and applied income-specific implicit discount rates. It also factored in how gross domestic product growth affects household income levels over time—an aspect previously overlooked. The model results reveal significant differences in electric vehicle adoption patterns across income groups. When income characteristics and varying discount rates are considered, low-income households show lower electric vehicle adoption rates compared to previous model predictions, while high-income households exhibit higher adoption rates. These disparities become even more pronounced under carbon tax policy scenarios. The study concludes that for transport sector carbon neutrality policies to be effective, they must account for various factors influencing vehicle purchase decisions, especially income-related constraints. It specifically recommends developing differentiated subsidy policies for different income groups to promote more equitable adoption of electric vehicles across all economic segments of society.

Keywords
bottom-up model
consumer segmentation
discount rate
green vehicles
road transport

수송 부문은 경제 활동과 인간 복지에 중요한 역할을 함과 동시에 온실가스 배출의 주요 원인으로 꼽히고 있다. 특히 도로 교통에서는 친환경 차량의 보급이 주요 감축 정책으로 활용되고 있다. 그러나 현재 친환경 차의 보급 수준이 이전에 비해 많이 둔화하여 재활성화를 위한 조치가 필요한 시점이다. 에너지 효율이 높은 친환경 차량은 기존의 내연기관차에 비해 고가인 경우가 많지만, 운행 중 에너지를 절약해 에너지 비용을 절감함으로써 궁극적으로 비용 효율성을 달성할 수 있다. 그러나 실제 소비자의 에너지 효율 투자 결정에서 소득 수준이 낮은 가구일수록 높은 내재적 할인율이 작용하여 구매로 이어지지 않는다는 경험적 연구가 다수 이루어졌다. 온실가스 배출 경로의 비용, 잠재력, 결과 등을 평가하고 정책을 수립하는 데 에너지시스템 모형이 유용하게 사용되나, 그중 상향식 모형은 대표 소비자를 상정하기 때문에, 이러한 소비자 특성에 따른 차이를 현실적으로 반영하지 못한다는 한계가 지적된다. 본 연구는 이를 개선하기 위해 기존 상향식 도로 수송 모형에 소득 수준별로 8개 구간을 설정하여 주행거리와 내재적 할인율을 차등 적용하고, 국내총생산 증가가 가구 소득에 미치는 영향을 반영했다. 모형 분석 결과, 소득이 낮은 가구에서는 할인율 세분화 및 소득 증가 반영 이전보다 전기차 보급이 감소한 반면, 소득이 높은 가구에서는 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 탄소세 적용 시나리오에서는 이러한 차이가 더욱 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 이를 통해, 정부의 수송 부문 탄소중립 목표 달성을 위한 정책 수립 시, 소비자의 차량 구매 결정에 영향을 미치는 다양한 요소를 고려할 필요가 있음을 확인했다. 특히, 보조금 정책을 소득 구간별로 차등 적용하는 방안을 통해 친환경 차량 보급을 다시 확대할 수 있는 가능성을 제시하였다.

키워드
상향식 모형
소비자 세분화
할인율
친환경 차량
도로 교통
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
  • Volume : 43
  • No :5
  • Pages :636-648
  • Received Date : 2025-03-24
  • Revised Date : 2025-04-16
  • Accepted Date : 2025-05-27
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2025.43.5.636
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