Analysis of the Association between Traffic Accidents and COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies Using Time Series Models

Jeonghun Yang; Sanghoo Yoon; Eun Mi Park; Tai-jin Song

doi:10.7470/jkst.2023.41.7.789

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2023 Vol.41, Issue 7 Preview Page Next Page

Article

Analysis of the Association between Traffic Accidents and COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies Using Time Series Models 시계열 모형을 이용한 코로나19 사회적 거리두기 정책의 교통사고 연관성 분석

31 December 2023. pp. 789-808

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Abstract

This study analyzed the association between the social distancing policy for COVID-19 implemented in South Korea and traffic accidents. For this, traffic accident data and social distancing data in Gyeonggi Province for the past 10 years (2013-2022) were collected, and the predicted traffic accident counts by four time series models were compared with the actual accident counts. As a result of the study, during the COVID-19 period, the population movement decreased by 10%, while the total traffic accidents decreased by an average of 7%. Based on 2020, by vehicle type, passenger car traffic volume decreased by 1.7%, while traffic accidents decreased by 15.5%, bus traffic volume decreased by 44.6%, while HOV traffic accidents decreased by 44.4%. Trucks increased traffic volume by 3.0%, while traffic accidents decreased by 6.2%, and motorcycles decreased the number of two-wheeled vehicle registrations by 2.3%, while traffic accidents only decreased by 1.6%. In addition, the decrease in traffic accidents in 2020, the first year of social distancing, was twice as high as in 2021, and the intensity of social distancing and the decrease in traffic accidents of general vehicles were proportional, but not for trucks and motorcycles. As a result of the research, it was possible to understand the changes in the lifestyle of Korean society, such as the rapid decrease in group travel due to COVID-19, the expansion of non-face-to-face transactions and delivery culture. This study is expected to contribute to the establishment of pandemic policies by policy makers and practitioners in future pandemic situations, and will also be helpful to researchers of time series analysis of traffic accidents. Future studies are deemed necessary for the utilization of urban travel speed data, analysis of the severity and types of traffic accidents, and the relationship between traffic volume and accident counts.

Keywords

ANN

ARIMAX

COVID-19 traffic accidents

Prophet

STL+ETS

본 연구는 한국에서 시행한 코로나19 사회적 거리두기 정책과 교통사고와의 연관성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 최근 10년간(2013-2022년) 경기도의 교통사고 자료와 사회적 거리두기 자료를 수집하였으며 4개의 시계열 모형에 의한 교통사고 예측치와 실제 사고건수를 비교하였다. 연구 결과, 코로나19 기간 인구 이동량이 10% 감소한 반면 전체 교통사고는 평균 7% 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 2020년 기준, 차종별로는 승용차 교통량이 1.7% 감소한 반면 교통사고는 15.5% 감소하였으며 버스 교통량이 44.6% 감소한 반면 승합차 교통사고는 44.4% 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 화물차는 교통량이 3.0% 증가한 반면 교통사고는 6.2% 감소하였으며 오토바이는 이륜차 등록대수가 2.3% 감소한 반면 교통사고는 1.6% 감소에 그쳤다. 또한, 사회적 거리두기 첫 해인 2020년의 교통사고 감소량이 2021년보다 2배 높게 나타났으며 거리두기 강도와 일반차종의 교통사고 감소량은 비례하였으나, 화물차와 오토바이는 그렇치 않았다. 연구 결과로 코로나19에 의한 단체여행 급감, 택배사업 등 비대면 거래와 배달문화의 확대 등 한국 사회의 생활양식 변화를 알 수 있었다. 본 연구는 향후 또 다른 팬데믹 상황에서 정책결정자와 실무자들의 방역정책 수립에 기여할 수 있을 것이며 교통사고의 시계열 분석 연구자들에게도 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다. 향후에는 도시부 통행속도 데이터의 활용과 교통사고 심각도, 교통사고 유형별 분석, 교통량과 사고건수와의 상세한 관계분석 연구들이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

키워드

ANN

ARIMAX

코로나19 교통사고

Prophet

STL+ETS

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Information

Publisher :Korean Society of Transportation
Publisher(Ko) :대한교통학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
Journal Title(Ko) :대한교통학회지
Volume : 41
No :7
Pages :789-808
Received Date : 2023-10-05
Revised Date : 2023-10-25
Accepted Date : 2023-12-31
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2023.41.7.789

Journal of Korean Society of Transportation ISSN:1229-1366(Print) 2234-4217(Online) 대한교통학회지

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